Hog slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to be up about 2.5 percent from last year’s fourth quarter when a record 30.4 million head were slaughtered, according to University of Missouri economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.
While the volume is expected to strain capacity, "Unless we lose a slaughter plant for some reason, we should have enough slaughter capacity to squeak by this fall and early winter without real problems," the economist wrote in their weekly report, Hog Outlook.
U.S. hog slaughter set a new record earlier this month, topping 2.3 million head for the first time in a September week, according to USDA statistics.
The fourth quarter slaughter projections are based the number of light weight hogs USDA estimated on June 1.
Exports however, which at record volumes have largely consumed these larger kills, could be slowing.
While export data for August won’t be available until October, Plain said his concern about exports is based on the large decline in pork cutout value over the past three weeks.
"The only explanation we can see for why we took such a hit is a slow-down in exports," he told Meatingplace.com.
Source: MeatingPlace, By Janie Gabbett on 9/16/2008